Why this Swine Flu Outbreak is Concerning
The virus that caused the widespread epidemic of 1918 is thought to be caused by a swine flu virus. It was the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history and was caused by an exceptionally virulent strain of the flu which infected 28% of all Americans and a fifth of the world’s population. During the worst of the epidemic, the virus moved quickly, killing young and healthy people within hours of the onset of symptoms. Although the current outbreak is also due to a swine flu virus, so far this particular circulating strain lacks certain features that would make it extremely virulent. However, experts are concerned that it could still mutate and change to a more virulent strain.
Another concerning feature of this swine flu outbreak is that the virus appears to not only be jumping from pigs to humans and back to pigs, but it appears to be efficiently spread in the new population of humans. This suggests that the virus is not going to fade away, according to experts. The last time a swine flu jumped to human and was efficiently spread in the new host was in 1918.
This is a virus that “no one in the population has seen before and therefore everyone is immunologically vulnerable, “ Chris Smith, a flu virologist at Cambridge University in England, recently told the Associated Press. ”Therefore it’s highly likely that once it starts to spread, people will catch it. And since the majority of the world’s population are in contact with one another, you’re going to get quite a lot of spread.” Up to 2 billion people could be infected by swine flu if the current outbreak turns into a pandemic lasting two years, the World Health Organization said today. This is one-third of the world’s population which is consistent with the historical record of flu pandemics. Independent experts agreed that the estimate was possible.
Another dangerous characteristic of this swine flu outbreak is that the median age of hospitalized individuals with swine flu is 15, which is younger than occurs with regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Richard Besser, during a news conference on May 6th. This is a concerning fact that scientists will be watching.
At this point in early May, it has already moved into the southern hemisphere. Suspect cases have been reported in Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand, where the flu season is just beginning. The virulence of the swine flu may well reveal itself during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter months, according to Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Scientists will be watching this virus closely to see whether it disappears as the swine flu scare did in 1976, becomes the dominant flu strain, or mutates into a deadlier illness that returns to the Northern Hemisphere and causes a pandemic in the fall similar to that of 1918.
Source: “Swine H1N1 Transmission From Human to Swine“, Recombinomics, Commentary 07:10, May 3, 2009
Source: Journal of Virology, May 2009
Source: “Swine Flu Travels to Poland as 1,893 Confirmed Ill”, Bloomberg.com, May 7, 2009
Source: “WHO says up to 2B people might get swine flu “, Associated Press, May 7, 2009
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